Shopping Centers (& Presidential Candidates) Make a Come Back

by Stephen Traub, ASA

Northern New England -- What a difference a Presidential term makes!

Like during the last primary, Presidential candidates this time around will have no problem locating temporary storefront space in downtown Manchester, NH for their campaign headquarters. Unlike the last time through though, they will have little chance of finding space at area shopping centers and will have no chance of finding space at The Mall.

As has been the case for many years, vacancy rates in downtown Manchester, NH remain at about 30%. What is different this time around, however, is that candidates will have little luck locating vacant storefront space at the region's shopping centers. Here, vacancy rates, for the first time since the beginning of the decade, have fallen below 10%, with Manchester and Nashua at 6%, Salem at 8%, Portsmouth at 10%, and South Portland, ME at 9%.

This is unlike the previous three Decembers in which shopping center vacancies in Manchester and throughout northern New England have been averaging 12% to 18%.

Full House

Moreover, at Manchester's regional enclosed mall, while candidates might be wise to make a campaign stop, they will have no luck at all finding a place for their campaign headquarters. Here, they could, however, play to a full-house as vacant space is at zero percent.

At other leading malls, candidates also will be guaranteed to play to (at least 95%) full houses. Vacancies are less than 5% at the Nashua, Portsmouth, Salem, NH and South Portland, ME regional malls (see PVM Dec. '95 vacancy survey).

Downtown Black Holes

Granted, in addition to the black holes of downtown Manchester, and parts of downtown Portland, ME, a few other less-than-stellar situations exist. For example, smaller and older enclosed malls continue to suffer. Most notable examples of these are the Methuen Mall (MA) and the Newington Mall (NH) as well as a few smaller "me-too" factory outlets. One case of a poorly performing factory outlet is the North Hampton NH Factory Outlet Center in which vacancies exceed 30%.

Still, shining stars -- even in poorly performing categories -- exist. For instance, downtown Portsmouth, NH sparkles. Less than 10% of its stores are vacant. And most factory outlet centers are performing superbly. Kittery's (ME) factory outlet stores continually out-perform the rest of the New England retail real estate market with effectively 100% of its stores occupied consistently.

Moreover, significant new growth in the retail real estate sector has been coming from the superstores. Free-standing superstores individually selling electronics, books, sporting goods, office-supplies, and computers are popping up more frequently and in more locations in NH than even are Presidential candidates.

The author, Stephen Traub, ASA, is Chief Commercial Appraiser for Property Valuation Advisors, Newburyport, MA. He is a certified general appraiser in NH, ME and MA. He can be reached at (508) 462-4347 or:
by e-mail: straub@shore.net

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